2025 // Week 13 – Vietnam Pepper Market: Stable Prices Amid Changing Conditions
Current Domestic Market Conditions
The Vietnamese pepper market has demonstrated remarkable stability in recent months, with domestic prices holding steady at 160,000-161,000 VND/kg across key growing regions. This price point represents a significant increase of approximately 13,000 VND/kg since early February 2025, when farmers began harvesting the new crop after Lunar New Year celebrations. At that time, prices ranged between 146,500-148,200 VND/kg, indicating a positive upward trajectory despite ongoing harvest activities that would typically exert downward pressure on prices.
This stability comes against a backdrop of production challenges reported by farmers in major growing areas like Cư Kuin District in Đắk Lắk Province. According to VOV reporting, local producers have experienced declining yields compared to previous seasons, primarily attributed to unfavorable weather conditions throughout the growing cycle. This reduction in output, coupled with increasing input costs and rising labor wages, has altered the economic calculations for many pepper farmers.
Despite these challenges, the current price level of 160,000 VND/kg has maintained profitability for most producers. This represents a significant shift from the market’s extreme volatility in previous years, when rapid price fluctuations made long-term planning difficult for farmers. The more stable pricing environment has allowed producers to focus on reinvestment strategies rather than merely responding to market swings.
Pepper price developments in the Central Highlands and Southeast during the week from March 17 to March 23, 2025 (Unit: VND/kg)
*Source: VPSA – Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association
Farmer Response and Production Strategies
Vietnamese pepper farmers are adapting their production strategies in response to the evolving market conditions. Rather than expanding acreage—a common approach during the boom years when pepper was referred to as “black gold”—many producers are now focusing on intensifying and improving their existing plantations. This shift in strategy reflects a more mature understanding of market dynamics and a recognition that quality and sustainability may offer better long-term returns than mere quantity.
According to interviews with farmers in Cư Kuin District, many are reinvesting their profits into enhancing soil quality, improving irrigation systems, and implementing more sustainable farming practices. This approach aims to increase yields per hectare while potentially reducing input costs over time. The farmers’ reluctance to expand acreage also indicates a growing awareness of the risks associated with monoculture farming and the benefits of diversification.
The perception of pepper farming has notably changed within agricultural communities. While once considered the most lucrative crop option, pepper is now viewed more cautiously, with farmers acknowledging that other crops may offer more stable income with lower risk profiles. This represents a significant shift in the agricultural mindset and is driving more balanced farming decisions across Vietnam’s pepper-growing regions.
Market Analysis and Short-Term Outlook
Market experts are projecting relative stability in the Vietnamese pepper market for the immediate future, with no major price fluctuations anticipated in the coming weeks. This outlook is supported by several key market dynamics currently at play. Although new-season pepper continues to enter the market during the ongoing harvest period, supply remains constrained due to farmers’ reluctance to sell at current prices. Many producers are withholding stock in anticipation of further price increases, creating a natural supply limitation that helps maintain price levels.
The high price environment has also fundamentally altered trader behavior in the market. Unlike previous seasons, where traders and businesses would aggressively stockpile pepper during harvest periods to manipulate prices later in the year, current high prices have deterred excessive speculative activity. This reduction in market manipulation has contributed to a more stable and transparent pricing environment that benefits both producers and legitimate traders focused on meeting real demand rather than speculative gains.
The long-term market outlook remains positive, driven by several factors. Global demand for pepper continues to show strength across major consumption markets. Industry analysts are particularly focused on signs that China—a major buyer of Vietnamese pepper—will soon resume significant purchases. China’s buying patterns have historically had substantial influence on regional pepper prices, and increased Chinese procurement could provide additional upward momentum to the market.
Vietnam’s Export Performance
Vietnam’s pepper export performance presents an intriguing picture of decreasing volumes but substantially increasing values, reflecting the significant rise in global pepper prices. During the first half of March 2025, the country exported 8,596 tons of pepper, generating $59.8 million in revenue. While this represents a 26.3% year-over-year decline in volume, the value increased by an impressive 18.8% compared to the same period in 2024. This divergence between volume and value metrics highlights the substantial price appreciation occurring in international pepper markets.
The cumulative export figures for the first two and a half months of 2025 show a similar pattern. From January 1 to March 15, Vietnam exported 35,802 tons of pepper valued at $243.9 million. This represents a 15.8% decrease in volume but a 39.7% increase in value compared to the same period last year. These figures underscore how the substantial price increases have more than compensated for the reduced export volumes in terms of total revenue generation for the Vietnamese pepper industry.
Perhaps most striking is the average export price achieved during this period. From January 1 to March 15, 2025, Vietnamese pepper commanded an average price of $6,813 per ton—a 66% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The price strengthened even further during the first half of March, reaching $6,958 per ton, which represents a 61.3% year-over-year increase. This price level is particularly significant as it marks the highest export price achieved in nine years, dating back to February 2017 when the market experienced its previous major bull run.
Global Market Positioning
Vietnam continues to maintain a prominent position in the global pepper market, though the competitive landscape is evolving as prices rise across all major producing regions. According to the latest data from the International Pepper Community (IPC), Vietnamese black pepper with a density of 500 g/l is currently trading at approximately $7,100 per ton in international markets, while the higher-density 550 g/l grade commands $7,300 per ton.
These price points place Vietnamese pepper in a competitive position relative to other major producers. Indonesian black pepper from Lampung is currently trading at $7,267 per ton, while Brazilian black pepper (ASTA 570) is priced at $7,000 per ton. Malaysian black pepper from Kuching (ASTA) commands a significant premium at $9,900 per ton.
In the white pepper category, Indonesian Muntok pepper is priced at $10,207 per ton, while Malaysian white pepper (ASTA) leads the market at $12,400 per ton. Vietnamese white pepper is positioned at the premium end of the spectrum, trading at approximately $10,100 per ton.
Vietnam’s pricing strategy reflects a balanced approach that positions its products competitively while capitalizing on the country’s reputation for consistent quality and reliable supply. The relatively lower price of Vietnamese black pepper compared to Malaysian offerings makes it attractive to price-sensitive buyers, while still representing substantial value growth compared to previous years. Simultaneously, Vietnamese white pepper is priced competitively against Indonesian Muntok, traditionally considered the benchmark for white pepper quality.