2026 // Week 9 – Vietnam Pepper Market Update: Brief Early 2026
Domestic Price Update
As of this morning, domestic prices in major producing regions are trading in a narrow band at VND 148,500–151,000 per kilogram. Prices have shown relative stability in local markets despite tightening global inventories. Key drivers supporting the current range include reduced domestic output year-to-date, sustained export interest, and cautious buying from processors.
Pepper price developments in the Central Highlands and Southeast from First 2023 to 23 Feb, 2026 (Unit: VND/kg)
Primary Drivers
- Lower farm output (cumulative -50,000 tons since 2020)
- Weather-related yield pressure this season
- Stronger export interest to U.S. and China
Near-term Risk
Further production decline would tighten domestic availability and could push prices above the current range.
Global Spot Prices Snapshot
IPC spot quotations show wide variation across origins and product grades. Differences reflect quality gradings (ASTA), processing (black vs white), and local supply conditions.
White pepper premiums reflect additional processing and smaller global supply; expect continued price separation between black and white grades if processing bottlenecks persist.
U.S. Import Flows — 2025 Recap
Full-year 2025: U.S. imported 80,301 tons of pepper valued at USD 611.9 million. Volume declined 18.1% versus 2024 while import value rose 13.2% — indicating a higher average import price per ton despite lower tonnage.
Vietnam remained the dominant supplier with 57,676 tons (71.8% share) but recorded a 23.7% YoY fall in volume. Indonesia and India increased or held share, partially offsetting Vietnam’s decline.
Recent Monthly Detail — December 2025 & Jan 2026 Update
December 2025 imports: 4,840 tons valued at USD 37.3 million. Month-on-month declines were notable: volume -12.7% and value -13.9%. Year-on-year for December, volume fell 33.9% versus Dec 2024. Vietnam supplied 3,818 tons (78.9% share) in December — maintaining a dominant presence in U.S. spot purchases.
- December suppliers: Vietnam 78.9% (3,818 t), India 9.9% (477 t), Indonesia 8.1% (393 t)
- January 2026 — Vietnam exports to global markets: 21,667 t, USD 139.3M (Vietnam Customs)
- January U.S. imports from Vietnam rebounded to 5,308 t (USD 38.8M), up +89.3% in volume YoY
Market Movement
January shows a sharp rebound in U.S. purchases from Vietnam after 2025 weakness, signaling inventory rebuilding and early signs of demand recovery.
Outlook & Strategic Considerations — 2026
The consensus view points to demand improvement in 2026, largely led by the U.S. (tariff reductions to 0%) and potential uptake from China where inventories are low. However, supply-side constraints are material: Vietnam’s cumulative production decline (~50,000 tons since 2020) and weather impacts threaten available exportable volumes.
