2026 // Week 10 – Vietnam Pepper Market Update — Market Snapshot & Export Dynamics
Price dynamics & unit-price comparison
Domestic farm-gate pepper prices are currently stable at 147,000–149,000 VND/kg after February declines totaling 1,500–4,000 VND/kg. Stability suggests short-term equilibrium between local supply and trading demand.
- February dip: -1,500 to -4,000 VND/kg
- Current band: 147,000–149,000 VND/kg
Price trends of pepper in the Central Highlands and Southeast regions during the week from 23-February to 01-March.
Export unit-price comparison
Vietnam’s average export price to China: USD 7,222/ton (up 39.4% YoY). Indonesia’s average: USD 6,463/ton. The 39% increase for Vietnam points to higher-quality shipments, different product mixes (processed grades), or tighter supply-demand fundamentals in destination markets.
China Import Dynamics and demand signal (2025 vs 2024)
A contraction in shipment volumes paired with rising overall value suggests a quality- or price-driven substitution toward higher-priced suppliers, and/or inventory and demand dynamics in China supporting higher unit prices. Vietnam’s rise in value share signals competitive positioning on price and/or quality; buyers in China appear willing to pay a premium for Vietnamese shipments in 2025.
Global Supply Position: Vietnam vs Indonesia (Volume & Value)
Interpretation: Indonesia remained the single largest-volume supplier but saw steep declines (–32.6% volume). Vietnam delivered near-equal volume yet generated the highest export value, implying a markedly higher average unit price and stronger revenue performance.
Market share shifts & secondary suppliers
Vietnam — Vietnam’s market share in China’s pepper imports rose to 44.6% by volume and 46.6% by value, significantly higher than 32.6% and 31.4% respectively in the previous year.
Indonesia — Volume fell to 3,868t (46% share by volume), value decreased 16.7%; market share dropped from 55.5% to 46%.
Other suppliers — Brazil supplied 543 tons (+33.7%), Malaysia 130 tons (–73.9%). These flows remain marginal but show shifting sourcing when large suppliers contract.
Outlook & strategic implications for 2026
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association identifies three tailwinds for 2026: recovery of U.S. demand, renewed growth from China driven by declining inventories, and a pricing environment that favors Vietnamese supplies. For exporters and trade managers this implies:
- Prioritize premium-grade consistency to sustain higher unit prices in China.
- Secure diversified contracts with U.S. buyers as demand recovers—logistics and phytosanitary readiness matter.
- Monitor Indonesia’s supply trajectory and Brazil’s incremental volumes — short-term vacuums create price opportunities.