2025 // Week 25 – Vietnam Pepper Market Update: Prices, Tariffs, and Export Outlook
Current Black Pepper Price Analysis
Today’s pepper price in the Vietnamese market ranges between 135,000 – 137,000 VND/kg, reflecting recent market volatility. Last week witnessed a significant downturn in domestic pepper prices, with values dropping by up to 5,000 VND/kg. This decline represents one of the more substantial weekly decreases in recent months, signaling potential market instability.
The primary factors driving this price reduction include weakened import demand from major international buyers and a cautious market approach from both buyers and sellers. Many market participants have adopted a wait-and-see attitude regarding the final U.S. tariff decision, which has contributed significantly to the current market sluggishness.
This hesitancy in the market has created a temporary stalemate between buyers and sellers, with transaction volumes decreasing as stakeholders await more clarity on future trade conditions. The price volatility reflects the pepper market’s sensitivity to international trade policies, particularly those involving Vietnam’s largest pepper importer, the United States.
Pepper price developments in the Central Highlands and Southeast from First 2023 to June 16, 2025 (Unit: VND/kg)
Export Outlook and Market Trends
Vietnam’s pepper export and pricing outlook in the near future is heavily dependent on the delicate balance between supply and demand in both domestic and international markets. As one of the world’s leading pepper exporters, Vietnam’s market position remains vulnerable to global economic fluctuations and trade policy changes, particularly those involving major importing nations.
A significant factor currently influencing the pepper market is the broader global geopolitical landscape. Ongoing international tensions have pushed up prices for gold and crude oil, creating a ripple effect across commodity markets. This upward pressure on certain commodities has paradoxically resulted in downward pressure on agricultural commodity markets, including pepper. The inverse relationship demonstrates how pepper, as a non-essential commodity, often experiences price suppression when investors move capital toward precious metals and energy resources during times of uncertainty.
Market analysts suggest that this trend may continue in the short term, with pepper prices potentially facing further downward pressure until global economic stability improves or until supply constraints begin to outweigh demand concerns.
U.S. Tariff Negotiations (June 9–12, 2025)
According to official reports from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the third round of bilateral trade negotiations between Vietnam and the United States was conducted from June 9 to 12, 2025. These talks represent a critical juncture in determining future trade relations between the two nations, with significant implications for Vietnam’s pepper export industry.
The negotiations demonstrated meaningful progress, with both delegations successfully narrowing differences across all areas under discussion. This positive development suggests potential movement toward a more favorable tariff structure for Vietnamese pepper exports to the American market. The discussions were characterized as frank and constructive, with American negotiators addressing concerns based on Vietnam’s previously submitted feedback documents.
A substantial portion of the negotiation period was dedicated to analyzing the current trade situation and proposing mutually acceptable solutions that could benefit both economies.
Key Market Impacts of U.S. Tariff Negotiations
The United States continues to maintain its position as Vietnam’s largest black pepper importer, making the ongoing tariff negotiations particularly consequential for the Vietnamese pepper industry. These discussions have raised cautious hopes among producers and exporters for the establishment of a reasonable tariff rate that would allow Vietnamese pepper to remain competitive in the American market. The outcome of these negotiations will likely set a precedent for Vietnam’s agricultural exports to the U.S. more broadly.
With approximately two-thirds of the 90-day tariff review period now elapsed, Vietnamese exporters remain in a cautious position. Many are actively pursuing strategies to diversify their export destinations, seeking to establish stronger footholds in alternative markets such as the European Union, Middle East, and other Asian countries. This diversification strategy represents a prudent approach to mitigating potential negative impacts should the U.S. tariff decision prove unfavorable.
Short-Term Market Forecast
The pepper supply in Vietnam is showing signs of decline as the harvest season concludes, creating a potential supply constraint that could influence market dynamics. Many farmers, observing the current price volatility and anticipating possible improvements following the U.S. tariff decision, are strategically holding onto their stock rather than selling at current rates. This withholding behavior is gradually shifting leverage in pricing negotiations toward sellers, though this advantage has yet to materialize into actual price increases due to countervailing market forces.
In the immediate short term, pepper prices are still projected to follow a downward trend. This continued decline is primarily attributed to persistently weak demand from international buyers and the broader instability in global markets stemming from geopolitical tensions. Analysts suggest this downward pressure may continue until either demand strengthens or supply constraints become more acute, potentially later in the year as stockpiles diminish.
According to the latest report from the International Pepper Community, the global pepper market showed mixed trends last week, with most origins experiencing price stagnation or decline. Indonesian black pepper was the sole exception, recording a modest price increase against the prevailing trend. This divergence highlights the increasingly regionalized nature of pepper pricing, with local supply-demand dynamics sometimes overriding global market trends.