2025 // Week 9 – Pepper Market Overview: Vietnam & Global Trends
Domestic Pepper Prices
As of today, pepper prices in Vietnam range from 161,000 to 162,000 VND/kg. This surge can be attributed to various factors, including increasing demand and a recent spike in global pepper prices.
Last week, prices experienced a surge in the Central Highlands region, with Đắk Lắk and Đắk Nông witnessing an increase of 2,000 VND/kg, while Gia Lai saw a rise of 3,000 VND/kg. Similarly, the Southeastern provinces also experienced an average price increase of 2,000 VND/kg.
Global Market Overview
The International Pepper Community (IPC) reported mixed trends in the global pepper market last week. Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) experienced a slight decline of 0.1% ($7/ton), settling at $7,287/ton. In contrast, Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) surged by $500/ton, reaching $9,500/ton. ASTA 570 black pepper (Brazil) remained stable at $6,800/ton.
Harvesting & Speculation Trends in Vietnam
Harvesting has commenced in regions like Đắk Nông and Bình Phước, although progress is slow. The 2025 harvest season is expected to be extended, with the main harvest anticipated between late March and early April. Local speculators, wealthy farmers, and traders are actively stockpiling pepper, driven by expectations of significant price increases in the coming years.
On February 10, black pepper prices experienced a sharp spike of $200/ton in a single day, but subsequently adjusted downward due to weaker export demand after two weeks of rapid price increases.
Currency & Market Outlook
By February 16, the USD appreciated by approximately 1% against the VND, making Vietnamese pepper cheaper when converted to USD. However, exchange rate volatility remains a concern, potentially impacting future pricing.
The Vietnam Pepper & Spice Association (VPSA) forecasts a positive global pepper market outlook for 2025, driven by several factors:
- Declining global production due to extreme weather events.
- Rising demand from China, which reduced imports from Vietnam in 2024 but is expected to increase purchases as the main harvest begins.
Domestic Market Situation
Pepper harvesting is currently underway in Vietnam, with rising prices boosting farmer morale. Regions like Đắk Nông, Bà Rịa, and Gia Lai report stable or increasing production. However, Đồng Nai has experienced a significant decrease in pepper cultivation area compared to the past 5-6 years.
Farmers are increasingly adopting sustainable production models, a shift influenced by the low prices experienced post-COVID-19.
Challenges & Production Outlook
The 2024 extreme drought caused crop failures, resulting in a 20-40% reduction in yields in certain regions. Many farms experienced two flowering periods, but the second crop exhibited a high percentage of hollow seeds, leading farmers to choose single harvests, further impacting yield.
Despite the lower output, high prices are enabling farmers to maintain profits compared to previous seasons.
Stockpiling & Future Expectations
The pepper harvest has just begun, and trade remains sluggish as farmers are holding back their stock. With prices on the rise, farmers are selling small quantities to cover expenses while retaining most of their stock, anticipating further price increases in the near future.
The market is expected to remain dynamic in the coming months, with the extent of price fluctuations dependent on factors like global demand, weather conditions, and government policies.